President Elect Joe Biden will win the popular vote by perhaps 5 points and the Electoral College. He did it by reinforcing the Democratic trends in the new diverse states and country, winning Arizona and Georgia by razor thin margins. He did it by taking and holding onto the blue […] Read more »
How the Suburbs Moved Away From Trump
Suburban counties across the country turned away from President Trump in this election. … This graphic shows how these counties voted in preliminary results this year, compared with 2016. Collectively, they shifted up — toward Joe Biden. That movement, apparent across battleground states, has been crucial to his chances of […] Read more »
The Role Shifting Demographics Played In The Presidential Election
Latino voters helped to shape the presidential race in different ways. For the first time, Latinos became the second-biggest voting demographic after white people, and that has major implications. NPR News The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up […] Read more »
The polling industry blows it again
The pollsters got Donald Trump wrong — again. When all the votes are tallied, Joe Biden isn’t going to win the popular vote by double digits. Trump lost Wisconsin by a point, not the 17-point defeat one survey suggested. And Trump obviously didn’t go down in an election night landslide, […] Read more »
2020 exit polls show a scrambling of Democrats’ and Republicans’ traditional bases
When Barack Obama won his second presidential term eight years ago, the exit polls clearly showed that he benefitted from what I called the “new American mainstream”—the growing voter blocs of youth, people of color, and the college-educated. That calculus changed in 2016, when Donald Trump shocked the political world […] Read more »
Polls underestimated Trump’s support, but not by as much as you might think
As returns from quick-counting states like Florida and Texas flowed in Tuesday night, pollsters quickly became targets in America’s easily triggered political culture. With Democratic challenger Joe Biden running well behind poll-created expectations in those states, accusations of “collapse” and “disaster” peppered the nation’s pollsters. President Trump added to the […] Read more »