President Trump may well be on his way out of Washington, but you wouldn’t know it from the way top congressional Republicans are talking about him. There’s a sense in Republican circles that Trump being on the ballot actually lifted them to higher-than-expected success in House, Senate and statehouse races, […] Read more »
Counties with worst virus surges overwhelmingly voted Trump
U.S. voters went to the polls starkly divided on how they see President Donald Trump’s response to the coronavirus pandemic, with a surprising twist: In places where the virus is most rampant now, Trump enjoyed enormous support. An Associated Press analysis reveals that in 376 counties with the highest number […] Read more »
Exit Polls Point to the Power of White Patriarchy
… A larger percentage of every racial minority voted for Trump this year than in 2016. Among Blacks and Hispanics, this percentage grew among both men and women, although men were more likely to vote for Trump than women. Among Hispanics, the movements by sex were marginal and have held […] Read more »
Polling outlets draw fire after missing mark again
The polling industry and election forecasters suffered another embarrassing election night that will call into question the usefulness of public opinion surveys and horse race political coverage that appeared to once again underestimate President Trump’s support. Votes are still being tallied in critical battleground states, meaning the final verdict on […] Read more »
A Cold War Between Red and Blue America
The clearest message of this week’s complicated election results is that the trench is deepening between red and blue America. … With Biden’s near-certain popular-vote victory, Democrats have now won the most votes in seven of the past eight presidential elections, something no party has ever done since the formation […] Read more »
Interpreting the Early Results of the 2020 Election
What can the 2020 election teach us about polling and politics? On the afternoon after Election Day, Matt Grossmann hosts the first-ever live edition of the Science of Politics podcast with G. Elliott Morris, data journalist at The Economist to discuss where exactly the models went wrong (and what they […] Read more »