As the Presidential Election finally approaches, experts warn that there are good polls and bad polls which can lead to the wrong information about Latino and Asian American voters. Getting it right is important in a year when registration and early voting is showing record participation among these two groups, […] Read more »
The Great Democratic Inversion
For decades, Democratic presidential candidates have been making steady gains among upper income whites and whites with college and postgraduate degrees. This year, however, is the first time in at least six decades that the Democratic nominee is positioned to win a majority of these upscale voters. … From the […] Read more »
What Are the New Battleground States?
… The 2016 election is poised to be the most polarized presidential election in our lifetime, deeply split along racial, gender, generational and educational lines. The outcome could leave the balance of power in Washington virtually unchanged and yet simultaneously heighten both parties’ distrust of each other to the level […] Read more »
Where Do Clinton And Trump Have The Most Upside?
… Hillary Clinton is favored to win the presidency, perhaps by a lot. Republicans are still favored to hold the House. In other words, after all the madness, the balance of power in Washington post-2016 could look surprisingly similar to that after 2012. Yet beneath the surface, the tectonic plates […] Read more »
2016: Last call for working class whites?
The biggest story of the 2016 election is undoubtedly the rise of Donald Trump, and behind the Republican nominee is a group in its last throes as the biggest force in politics: The white working class. A new survey from CNN and the Kaiser Family Foundation delves deeply into this […] Read more »
Hillary Clinton Is Getting Surprisingly Little Extra Lift From Blacks and Hispanics
The conventional wisdom holds that sweeping demographic shifts propelled Barack Obama to the presidency. So here’s a simple question: Why haven’t these demographics swept Hillary Clinton to a big polling lead and a smooth glide to victory? Donald J. Trump, after all, has alienated just about every growing demographic group […] Read more »