Barack Obama won the 2008 presidency by 7.3pt. Two years later, his Democratic party lost 63 seats and control of the House of Representatives. Two years after that, Obama won re-election by 3.9pt. The incongruity of the middle result has led people to wonder why Democrats did better in the […] Read more »
Why the Republicans Aren’t Giving Up on White Folks
It seemed that Republicans had a singular message for themselves after Election Day 2012: Befriend minorities. The Grand Old Party’s popularity with Latino and black voters had dwindled to modern-day lows, and leading GOP lights publicly vowed that the work to remake the party would begin immediately. If they failed, […] Read more »
Why Republicans Can Get Away With Ignoring Their Problems
Republicans have a problem with young voters. Democrats have a problem with young nonvoters. That simple equation, which applies equally to minority voters, helps explain why Republicans could enjoy another strong midterm election in 2014 without solving any of the underlying demographic challenges that threaten them in the 2016 presidential […] Read more »
Here come Rhonda, Rex Resentful
It’s never too early to try identifying the next big demographic that will play a significant role in the outcome of the next round of elections. … My initial targeting for 2014 will be to focus on what I refer to as “The Resentfuls” — Rhonda and Rex Resentful (if […] Read more »
Single mothers give presidential politics a new perspective
Single mothers are on the rise, making up roughly one in every four households with children under 18, according to a new study by the Pew Research Center. That growth, coupled with the overwhelmingly Democratic nature of single moms, provides another fascinating lens through which to view the changing demographics […] Read more »
Blind to the Past — and Future
As a new effort at comprehensive immigration reform inches its way forward in the Senate, dissent from many conservatives is revealing their true contempt for, and fear of, the possibility that demographic groups who look different from their base will accrue power. The questions are: Is providing a pathway to […] Read more »