“Demographics as destiny” was one of the major themes that came out of the 2012 election. It was argued that Democrats, with their strong support from the growing minority population, were en route to becoming a long-lasting majority party. And Republicans, tied to a slowly declining white population, were on […] Read more »
As GOP celebrates win, no sign of narrowing gender, age gaps
… Nationally, 52% of voters backed Republican candidates for Congress, while 47% voted for Democrats, according to exit polls by the National Election Pool, as reported by The New York Times. The overall vote share is similar to the GOP’s margin in the 2010 elections, and many of the key […] Read more »
The Tectonic Plates of 2014
Candidates matter, campaigns matter, spending matters, and local quirks matter, too. But, like all elections, this fall’s midterm has also been heavily shaped by systemic structural factors that transcend the competitions between individual candidates. As the campaign careens toward its close, keeping some of these factors in mind may help […] Read more »
The Party of Nonvoters
With just four days before the midterm elections, the spotlight understandably is focused on the estimated 40% of voting age adults who are expected to show up at the polls next Tuesday. There has been less attention on the much larger share who most probably will not. As in past […] Read more »
Why 2014 Isn’t as Good as It Seems for the Republicans
The Republicans are looking forward to having a good week. They are favored to win the Senate, and they could pick up enough House seats to finish with their largest margin since 1928. But perhaps more important to the party’s long-term prospects than Tuesday’s results is what unfolds in the […] Read more »
Yes, Republicans will take the Senate. But here’s a GOP reality check.
Whatever the precise size of the incoming wave — and we’ll leave it to forecasters and surfers to fight over that — most models are predicting a Republican takeover of the Senate, as well as gains in the House, following Tuesday’s midterm vote. Such a victory gives the Republican Party […] Read more »