Much of the debate about Hillary Rodham Clinton’s potential appeal to female voters may be focusing on the wrong group of women. Probably the most frequently asked question about Clinton’s possible coalition as a Democratic nominee in 2016 is whether she can win back the working-class white women who have […] Read more »
The States That Will Pick the President: The Southwest
Political change has been gestating longer in the new swing states of the Southwest than in the emerging battlegrounds of the Southeast. At the apex of their presidential strength, Republicans dominated the desert. From 1968 to 1988, the GOP presidential candidates swept Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico all six times. […] Read more »
The States That Will Pick the President: The Sunbelt
The emergence of three rapidly growing Sunbelt states as pivotal swing contests in presidential elections may be one of the most unexpected developments in recent American politics. … If Republicans can’t hold North Carolina (with 15 Electoral College votes) and recapture at least Florida (with 29 EC votes), if not […] Read more »
The Emerging Republican Advantage
… From 1896 to 1930, the Republican Party reigned supreme; from 1932 to 1968, the New Deal Democrats dominated; following a period of deadlock, the Reagan Republicans held sway during the 1980s. After the parties exchanged the White House, Democrats appeared to take command of American politics in 2008. In […] Read more »
When Trends Collide
… Putting aside the personalities, strengths, and weaknesses of the two presidential nominees next year, 2016 features a collision between the normal “time for a change” dynamic favoring Republicans and the shifting national demographics, which could boost Democratic chances. Which factor will dominate is anyone’s guess, but how voters perceive […] Read more »
Baby Boomers More Likely to Identify as Conservative
Older generations of Americans are much more likely to describe their political views as conservative than as liberal. This includes the large baby boom generation, of whom 44% identified as conservative and 21% as liberal last year. That 23-percentage-point conservative advantage is less than the 31-point edge for the older […] Read more »