This year, Latino voters will be critical in deciding a number of key races that could determine the balance of power in Congress. For years, they have voted solidly Democratic, but the preferences of this diverse group are shifting. Progressive pollster Carlos Odio and Republican strategist Mike Madrid join Laura […] Read more »
Following the Money: What Outside Spending Tells Us About the Race for the House
Key Points• The spending decisions by big outside House groups can inform us about the most competitive House races.• So far, outside groups have spent money in 57 House districts. The lion’s share of those districts that have seen spending are held by Democrats, indicating that Democrats are playing significantly […] Read more »
The Great Senate Stalemate
… It remains entirely possible that November’s results will leave the Senate divided again at 50–50, something that has not happened in consecutive elections since the Seventeenth Amendment established the direct election of senators more than a century ago. … One of the most powerful trends in modern politics has […] Read more »
Are Political Winds Blowing in Republicans’ Favor Again?
For most of the summer, President Biden and the Democrats had the political winds at their backs. They saw their poll numbers rise as gas prices fell, as the Supreme Court refocused voters on abortion, and as the Jan. 6 hearings and the investigation into Donald J. Trump’s handling of […] Read more »
Republican lead in House shrinks again as voters see high-stakes contest
The Republicans have a lead. But it keeps shrinking. While they’re still in a very good position to capture a House majority, that majority looks narrower today than it ever has, having ticked down for the second straight month to 223 seats in our model estimate. Republicans were at 226 […] Read more »
Voters divided amid intense fight for control of Congress, poll finds
Heading into the final weeks of the midterm election campaign, Americans are split nationally in their vote for Congress, with Republicans holding sizable advantages on the economy, inflation and crime and Democrats far more trusted to handle the issues of abortion and climate change, according to a Washington Post-ABC News […] Read more »