The 2022 midterm environment is full of a complicated set of issues. Talk to voters and you’ll hear about inflation and the economy, abortion, the January 6 insurrection and the continued presence of Donald Trump in politics. So what exactly are this year’s midterms about? The poll asked self-identified voters […] Read more »
The fundamentals and the midterm
The current conventional wisdom is for the midterm to be somewhat better than average for the president’s party in the House. (I set aside the Senate here.) The fundamentals doubt that, as we’ll see. The “fundamentals” provide a helpful baseline, even if “non-fundamentals” such as polling, candidate quality, unique issues, […] Read more »
A Memo to Democrats
The four of us have been around politics a long time. We have been a part of some of the Democratic Party’s biggest victories; we have seen some big losses. In the 2022 election, things are as close as we have ever seen them. But we are right on the […] Read more »
Facts, Feelings and Rural Politics
The hard-right turn of rural America has become a key factor in our nation’s troubled politics. Rural voters are a declining share of the electorate, but their turn to the MAGAfied Republican Party has been so sharp that, combined with the way our political system underweights urban voters, the radicalization […] Read more »
Voters in battleground states prefer Republican House candidates over Democrats by 6%, survey says
Republicans and Democrats around the nation are statistically tied when it comes to which party voters prefer to control the House of Representatives — but Republicans have a 6-point lead in key battleground states, according to a Penn Program on Opinion Research and Election Studies/SurveyMonkey poll of over 100,000 likely […] Read more »
National UMass Amherst Poll Measures Voters’ Fear, Anger and Worries Approaching Midterm Elections
As the nation approaches the 2022 midterm elections, American voters expressed fear, anger and a great deal of worry in a new national University of Massachusetts Amherst Poll, the results of which were released today. Nearly three-quarters of Democratic voters (74%) and 65% of Republican voters said that they will […] Read more »