The continuing uncertainty in the Democratic presidential primary has a hole the size of Barack Obama at its center. One reason the race remains so unsettled is that none of the contenders has reassembled the winning coalition of groups that Obama coalesced during his 2008 run to the nomination, a […] Read more »
Is The Party Deciding?
With Thanksgiving behind us, it’s time to dive back into the two big political stories of the fall: the House impeachment inquiry and the race for the Democratic presidential nomination. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the team gives an update on where public opinion stands on impeachment […] Read more »
Both the Democrats and Republicans were once white majority parties. Now race divides them.
… It is easy to attribute the revival of white supremacy to the presidency of Donald Trump and his perceived friendliness to white nationalist groups. However, Trump is far from the only source. The reemergence of white supremacy goes hand in hand with changing partisan politics in the United States. […] Read more »
The surprising second choices of Democratic primary voters upend political cliches
To many observers, the Democratic presidential primary has highlighted the “profound ideological divides between the Democratic Party’s moderate and progressive wings,” as an Associated Press article put it — two wings locked in a bitter fight for control. … Perhaps that’s how Democratic leaders and activists see the primary. But […] Read more »
How Black Voters Could Help Biden Win the Democratic Nomination
Former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. may lose the Iowa caucuses. But he is betting on strong support from black voters in Southern states and urban areas to help him accrue the 1,990 delegates needed to clinch the nomination. It might work. That’s because an overwhelming majority of delegates […] Read more »
House ratings changes: A dozen races shift toward Democrats
Most Republicans believe their party weathered the 2018 storm and brighter days are ahead in 2020. But that perspective doesn’t mean the GOP’s chances of retaking the House are particularly good. … With a combination of Republicans’ self-inflicted wounds, slow recruiting, or suburbs continuing to shift against the president, Democratic […] Read more »