The campaign for the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination is radically unsettled because the party’s primary voters are in a deeply uncertain mood. They try on candidates, find them wanting and move on to someone else. Further confusing the contest is the success of two candidates, former vice president Joe Biden […] Read more »
Party Cues in the News: Elite Opinion Leadership and Climate Skepticism
Supporters of the Republican Party have become much more skeptical of the science of climate change since the 1990s. We argue that this phenomenon can be explained by a model of top-down persuasion by party elites. We construct aggregate measures of climate skepticism from nearly 200 public opinion polls at […] Read more »
‘I know Joe’s heart’: Why black voters are backing Joe Biden
After Kamala Harris challenged Joe Biden’s past opposition to school busing in a nationally televised Democratic presidential debate, the former vice president who prides himself on strong relationships in the black community was in an unfamiliar place, playing defense on race. But Bebe Coker had a message for the man […] Read more »
Latino Voters Were A Force In Nevada In 2018. Who Will They Back In 2020?
Iowa will vote first in 2020, but Nevada, on Feb. 22, is first in the West — and the first with a lot of Latino voters. Journalist Humberto Sanchez explains the priorities of his state’s Hispanics. Weekend Edition Sunday, NPR Read more »
Don’t understand how Biden’s still ahead? You don’t know enough older black voters.
… Biden’s averaged 49% among all potential black Democratic primary voters in our last two CNN national polls. That’s good enough not only for a 35-point lead over his Democratic competitors, but good enough to beat all of them combined by about 10 points. But I think treating black voters […] Read more »
How a Divided Left Is Losing the Battle on Abortion
… The Democratic Party has rejected the message that drove its politics since President Bill Clinton’s administration — that abortion should be “safe, legal and rare” — and embraced abortion rights with few stipulations. Every leading Democratic presidential candidate has fallen in line. But unlike support for same-sex marriage, which […] Read more »