A year ago, almost nobody would have guessed that Sen. Kamala D. Harris (D-Calif.) would drop out of the Democratic presidential race before the Iowa caucus. Like Marco Rubio and Scott Walker in 2016, Harris had the potential to be a consensus candidate: someone who could satisfy the demands of […] Read more »
Why Harris Dropped Out
After an initially promising bid, California Sen. Kamala Harris dropped out of the Democratic presidential primary race Tuesday. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew assesses why she stumbled in the polls and dropped out relatively early. FiveThirtyEight Read more »
Why Kamala Harris’s Campaign Failed
… Kamala Harris dropped out of the presidential race on Tuesday, and she’s probably the most significant candidate to do so to date. … Harris dropping out now surprised me. I expected she would stay in the race at least through Iowa and perhaps even New Hampshire, and drop out […] Read more »
The ‘lane theory’ is the wrong lane to be in
It’s long past time we toss the “lane theory” of primaries into the dustbin of history. Lane theory holds that candidates are essentially running to attract subsets of voters who have consistently different sets of priorities, ideological or otherwise. Until near the end of the race, claims the theory, candidates […] Read more »
Why do so many people believe Trump will win?
… Clinton won the popular vote by just under 3 million votes, a far more substantial popular vote victory than Gore had, yet she lost more crucial states than Gore did. Lesson learned. The focus this cycle is much more on the Electoral College and the key states that add […] Read more »
California voters wanted Kamala Harris to drop out of presidential race, poll found
Sen. Kamala Harris’ decision to drop out of the 2020 presidential race came as a new poll showed a majority of California Democrats wanted Harris to exit the race. The poll, conducted by the Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies for The Times, showed that by 61% to 24%, likely Democratic […] Read more »