For most of the primary, “anything can happen” has been the mantra of reporters, analysts and pundits alike. But that’s not really true anymore. The top-tier candidates – Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders and Pete Buttigieg – all have real support in early states and a plausible path to […] Read more »
The cost of Sanders’ agenda would set a peacetime US record
While the new spending programs Sen. Bernie Sanders has proposed in his presidential campaign would at least double federal spending over the next decade, he has faced almost no questions from other candidates or the media — on the eve of the last debate before primary voting begins — about […] Read more »
A Four-Way Pileup In Iowa
The latest polling in Iowa shows a tight, four-way race just three weeks away from caucus day. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew updates their thinking about who is likely to win there, and about how a win in Iowa could affect the rest of the […] Read more »
What Voters Want in 2020
A few months ago, I did my best Frank Luntz impression with four different focus groups of swing voters in states that will help decide the 2020 election. This was a project for the second season of The Wilderness, a podcast I host about how the Democratic Party can win […] Read more »
Another new poll makes clear what will happen in Iowa: No one knows
… Over the past several days, two major polls of Iowa have been released. At a glance, they seem to offer starkly different pictures of what’s likely to happen in next month’s caucuses. A poll from CNN, the Des Moines Register and Mediacom, conducted by Selzer & Co., has Sen. […] Read more »
The Steyer boomlet
Once again, there’s a new “hot” candidate. This time it’s billionaire Tom Steyer, who hit double digits in new Fox News polls in Nevada and South Carolina, thereby qualifying him for Tuesday’s CNN/Des Moines Register presidential debate — the last debate before the Feb. 3 Iowa caucuses. … Some Democrats […] Read more »