On October 20, 2022, GBAO conducted three focus groups online with Democratic and Independent voters who varied across demographics—age, education, and race. Key takeaways• Democrats are acutely worried about abortion, extremist Republicans, and political division.• Some see economic improvements, while others feel pessimistic.• Discussing the “middle class” further reveals pessimism […] Read more »
The Red Wave Didn’t Just Vanish
On Election Day, a small but crucial percentage of Republican voters deserted their party, casting ballots for Democratic nominees in several elections that featured Trump-backed candidates at the top of the ticket. These Trump-driven defections wrought havoc on Republican ranks. At the extreme, a once-strong Republican Party in Michigan was […] Read more »
It was all about the independents, again
… According to the Edison Research preliminary exit polls, independents were without question the most critical voter group in this election. In fact, they made up 31 percent of the electorate, the largest percentage going back as far as the 1980 election. While the exit polls showed independents growing, it […] Read more »
These 17 Swing Voters Have a Very Clear Message for Donald Trump
When Donald Trump was president, you rarely heard Trump voters blame him when anything went wrong; it was the Democrats’ fault, usually, or the deep state or Robert Mueller or the F.B.I. or was due to any number of conspiracy theories. Which is why it was striking, during our focus […] Read more »
Humility Beat Hubris (For Now)
On November 8th, humility beat hubris. The election was not a triumph for professionals of either party who, with a few exceptions, didn’t see it coming. It is hard to claim credit for something you didn’t see. Meanwhile, voters, who generally lack hubris, quietly took a stand, particularly those in […] Read more »
How Much Did a ‘Dobbs Effect’ Blunt the Red Wave?
The expectations for 2022 midterms were set early on. The Democratic Party was expected to easily lose control of the House and potentially the Senate as a result of lackluster approval ratings for Joe Biden and concerns about issues like crime and inflation. But then came the end of Roe […] Read more »