Finding a public poll of the Nevada caucuses has been like trying to find a needle in a haystack. … The data we do have shows Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders should be favored. Even when former Vice President Joe Biden was ahead in Nevada, it was rarely by more than […] Read more »
Latino Voters are Betting on Bernie
Latinos are politically energized in 2020 and their votes can propel a candidate into the winner’s circle. The stakes could not be higher for the Democratic presidential hopefuls as they head into the Nevada caucuses. The hyper-diversity of the Democratic Party’s electorate makes Nevada a litmus test for how candidates […] Read more »
NBC News/WSJ poll: Sanders gains ground on Biden with black voters nationally
As the Democratic primary battle turns to states with more racial diversity than the first two nominating contests in Iowa and New Hampshire, newly released data from the NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll finds that Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders now enjoys similar levels of support among black Democratic primary voters […] Read more »
We lack the data to predict Nevada’s outcome. Be wary of pundits’ gut instincts.
… In a normal election, this lack of concrete information wouldn’t be a problem: Nobody ever died because they didn’t see enough Nevada polling. But primaries aren’t normal elections. The trajectory of the race is often influenced by media-created “expectations” and narratives about “momentum.” And in Nevada, many political pros […] Read more »
Las Vegas Debate Doesn’t Change Sanders’ Status as Democratic Frontrunner
Democratic voters have told us for months that beating President Trump is the most important issue for them in choosing a nominee. The best way for a candidate to show that they are a winner is by winning. And, Bernie Sanders has been winning. … All eyes are on Nevada […] Read more »
Primary elections aren’t general elections
… The evidence is overwhelming: Trying to predict general election outcomes from primary results is a fool’s errand. Using primary results within demographic subgroups to project general election outcomes is equally faulty. The most important political fact about anyone who votes in a primary is not his or her level […] Read more »