… The evidence is overwhelming: Trying to predict general election outcomes from primary results is a fool’s errand.
Using primary results within demographic subgroups to project general election outcomes is equally faulty.
The most important political fact about anyone who votes in a primary is not his or her level of education, income or even party registration. Rather, the key point of differentiation is the very fact he or she chose to vote in a partisan primary. CONT.
Mark Mellman (Mellman Group), The Hill