Key Points• Our final Electoral College ratings show Joe Biden at 321 electoral votes and Donald Trump at 217.• Democrats are narrow favorites to capture a Senate majority, 50-48 with two Toss-ups — the two Georgia races, both of which we think are likely to go to runoffs.• We have […] Read more »
It’s Not Just Suburban Women. A Lot of Groups Have Turned Against Trump.
By now, you’ve probably heard that Donald J. Trump has a problem with women. Not just suburban women, but American women across age, race or education — a pattern that shows up in every poll. But the gender gap may not be as much about President Trump as many people […] Read more »
POLITICO’s final Election Forecast: Biden in command, Senate up for grabs
The 2020 election is ending in a frenzy of swing-state travel and warnings of a chaotic vote count befitting this head-spinning year in American politics. But lower the din for a moment, and you’re left with a presidential contest that’s been remarkably stable. The same is true of POLITICO’s Election […] Read more »
My predictions for the 2020 presidential and congressional races
… Democrats need not fear. This, my sixth published biennial election prediction essay, is perhaps my easiest: Former vice president Joe Biden will win comfortably unless we experience the greatest polling failure in modern history. Democrats will also gain control of the Senate and expand their majority in the House. […] Read more »
Should Biden and Trump focus more on persuading swing voters — or mobilizing the base?
… We won’t know until the ballots are counted whether turnout or persuasion was critical in 2020. But with political scientists Seth Hill and Gregory Huber, I’ve released new research that tries to understand the relative influence of each of these approaches in the presidential elections of 2012 and 2016. […] Read more »
The Six Faulty Assumptions on Which the Trump Campaign Rested
Much of the thinking about the outcome of next Tuesday’s election has been binary: Does Joe Biden hang onto his lead in the polls and win, or can President Trump mount a successful comeback, threading the same needle that enabled him to win 30 states with 306 Electoral College votes […] Read more »