For the second time in four years, Rep. Sean Maloney (D-N.Y.) drew one of the toughest assignments: investigating what went wrong in a disappointing election. … Maloney, the new chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, worked with senior staff to analyze 600 polls in House races last year, matched […] Read more »
The Democrats’ 2024 Senate problem
While campaign junkies everywhere are focused on the 2022 midterm elections, I’m already thinking about the fight for the Senate in 2024. Sure, what happens in next year’s congressional elections will impact the future, as will the next presidential contest, the state of the economy and dozens of other unknowns. […] Read more »
Why Virginia’s 2021 elections have national implications
Last week, Glenn Youngkin earned the Republican nomination for this year’s Virginia governor’s race. Virginia, along with New Jersey, hosts the only gubernatorial elections this year. Voters throughout the Old Dominion will also be casting ballots in legislative elections. … Virginia’s unique in that no person can serve as governor […] Read more »
Trump’s Engaged Party Defining The Battle For 2022
We conducted a large, mostly cell phone survey with an oversample of Republicans in the 2022 battleground for the U.S. Senate, governorships, and House, and it is painfully clear Donald Trump, Lindsey Graham, and Kevin McCarthy know their party. The Trump loyalists who strongly approve of him are two-thirds of […] Read more »
Why the Sun Belt may pick the next president
The battleground states across the industrial Midwest have functioned as the decisive tipping point of American politics for at least 30 years, especially in presidential elections. But the latest Census Bureau findings on both overall population growth and voter turnout in 2020 signal that the Sun Belt will increasingly rival, […] Read more »
The Senate’s new normal: Tiny, fragile majorities
There’s a new normal in the Senate: tiny majorities. Democrats currently have a shaky one-vote advantage in the upper chamber. Every senator is a potential deal-breaker; Sen. Joe Manchin III (D-W.Va.) — the chamber’s most moderate Democrat — has something akin to veto power over every Democratic proposal. Over the […] Read more »