At home and abroad, President Biden is confronting what it means to lead a changing Democratic Party. The center of gravity in the party still seems closer to Biden’s center-left than to Sen. Bernie Sanders’s democratic-socialist left, as Biden’s victory in the 2020 nomination battle confirmed. In primary campaigns in […] Read more »
The House: Democrats Would Have a Tough Slog Even Without Redistricting
Key Points• The reapportionment of House seats and pending redistricting has prevented us from releasing U.S. House ratings so far this cycle.• While Republicans stand to gain from this process, they would be favored to win the House even if the district lines were not changing.• Rating the House races […] Read more »
Don’t Sleep on Asian American Voters
… Even amid soaring participation from all major racial groups, Asian Americans increased their turnout by more than any other cohort, according to recently released studies by the Census Bureau and Catalist, a Democratic voter-targeting firm. In fact, no major demographic group in recent decades has increased its turnout from […] Read more »
How the Storming of the Capitol Became a ‘Normal Tourist Visit’
It is no wonder that Republican leaders in the House do not want to convene a truth and reconciliation commission to scrutinize the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol. The more attention drawn to the events of that day, the more their party has to lose. Immediately after the riot, […] Read more »
Ahead of 2022, House Democrats Aim to Fix Their Polling Problem
… For the second presidential cycle in a row, Democrats were stunned by the number of voters who came out in support of Donald J. Trump and his Republican allies down the ballot. This week, the House Democrats’ campaign arm, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, presented the results of an […] Read more »
Trump Enthusiasts Are Lowering the Temperature
… Hart Research’s Jeff Horwitt shared with me 15 months of previously unreleased data from the NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll that his firm conducts alongside GOP firm Public Opinion Strategies for the two news organizations. … The data shows that Republicans who have been seeing themselves as Trump loyalists […] Read more »