When Joe Biden first came into office, progressives said he could be the next FDR. Now, as Biden’s relationship with the left has come under strain, liberals are talking about treating him like former President Jimmy Carter instead — and mapping out a Democratic primary challenge in 2024. … The […] Read more »
‘A hell of a year’: GOP eyes big 2022, but weaknesses remain
This time last year, the Republican Party was hitting bottom. … What a difference 12 months make. Entering a pivotal election year, a resurgent GOP is poised to reclaim one, if not both, chambers of Congress and retain its lock on dozens of state legislatures and governor’s offices. While victory […] Read more »
Why 2022 Rhymes With the Previous Four Midterms
It feels safer to bet on unpredictability than stability in this era of tremendous political and social churn and upheaval. While we know that the midterm elections favor the ‘out’ party (i.e. the party that doesn’t control the White House), many wonder if history can be a reliable guide when […] Read more »
How the left’s rage at Joe Manchin crystallizes the Democrats’ 2022 dilemma
From the moment Sen. Joe Manchin III started raising concerns about President Biden’s social spending bill, the outrage hurled at him from some fellow Democrats was pointed and personal. … The intensifying anger directed at Manchin in recent weeks has brought renewed attention to a fundamental divide roiling the Democratic […] Read more »
An Early Midterm Forecast
Political observers seem to be treating a Republican takeover of the US House next year as an inevitability. And maybe that’s true, but I wanted to apply a bit of simple modeling to it to see if we can get some handle on how likely that is to happen. The […] Read more »
Swing Voters Don’t Like the January 6 Committee Critics
Republicans who disrespect the January 6 Committee are not winning over swing voters. Democrats, meanwhile, remain on firm political ground with “persuadables” when they endorse the committee’s investigation. These are among the top takeaways from 13 Trump-to-Biden voters in key swing states, participating in two online focus groups on December […] Read more »