The results of individual special elections, like Thursday’s in Montana between Democrat Rob Quist and Republican Greg Gianforte, can’t always foretell what will happen in the next high-stakes midterm. Each district presents its own unique set of variables, like flawed candidates or dreadfully unpopular governors. But taken collectively, the margins […] Read more »
19 House Races Shift Toward Democrats
The midterm elections are still nearly a year and a half away, and the political dynamics could yet change, but we shouldn’t ignore the fact that history and the current environment are merging together for a potentially great set of elections for Democrats in November 2018. CONT. Nathan L. Gonzales, […] Read more »
Democrats Don’t Need Trump’s Voters To Retake The House
Stop me if you’ve seen a headline (or five) that proclaims something along the lines of: “Most Trump voters still support Trump.” Typically, the article includes quotes from Trump voters in Pennsylvania or Michigan. Sometimes it revolves around polling showing people don’t “regret” voting for Trump. The takeaway is usually: […] Read more »
Montana likely to go Republican
Republican Gianforte leads Democrat Quist: We polled on May 11-12 and May 18-19. We saw a consistent 13 pp lead for Gianforte over Quist. With Libertarian Wicks polling at 9 percent and Unsure voters at just 5 percent, the lead appears significant and stable heading into the last week of […] Read more »
Why The 2018 Senate Elections Are Looking Bad For Both Parties
The 2018 midterms are a story of two chambers. Democrats are in the best position they’ve been in since 2010 to win a majority of seats in the House of Representatives. The Senate map, on the other hand, is so tilted toward the GOP that most political analysts have all […] Read more »
Are Democrats headed toward a wave election?
Quinnipiac’s recent national poll made quite a splash when it reported a Democratic lead of 16 points on the generic Congressional ballot question. Indeed, conventional wisdom – as well as historical trends – suggests that Democrats, as the party opposite that of the new president and in the Congressional minority, […] Read more »