As backlash to the end of Roe v. Wade came to dominate U.S politics this summer, poll after poll showed the tide turning in Democrats’ favor — leading many to wonder whether President Biden’s side might avoid the sort of sweeping midterm losses that typically befall the party in power. […] Read more »
Following the Money: What Outside Spending Tells Us About the Race for the House
Key Points• The spending decisions by big outside House groups can inform us about the most competitive House races.• So far, outside groups have spent money in 57 House districts. The lion’s share of those districts that have seen spending are held by Democrats, indicating that Democrats are playing significantly […] Read more »
The Great Senate Stalemate
… It remains entirely possible that November’s results will leave the Senate divided again at 50–50, something that has not happened in consecutive elections since the Seventeenth Amendment established the direct election of senators more than a century ago. … One of the most powerful trends in modern politics has […] Read more »
Fox News Poll: Georgia races see split decision, with Warnock and Kemp ahead
With just 6 weeks until the midterm election, the latest Fox News survey among Georgia registered voters shows Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock maintaining an edge over Republican Herschel Walker, while incumbent Republican Gov. Brian Kemp widens his lead against Democratic challenger Stacey Abrams. The poll, released Wednesday, finds Warnock up […] Read more »
Fox News Poll: Pennsylvania Senate race narrows
Democrat John Fetterman tops Republican Mehmet Oz among Pennsylvania voters by 45-41%, in a Fox News survey released Wednesday. That 4-point edge is within the poll’s margin of sampling error, and down from an 11-point advantage in late July. It is notable neither candidate receives majority support. … In the […] Read more »
Abortion impact on elections
Issues are the accepted language of political campaigning. But rarely, if ever, has a single issue so transformed the political landscape in the weeks before an election as abortion seems to have done this year. In a country that generally supports abortion rights but has long been falsely confident that […] Read more »