The Democrats’ lead in House polling is tightening. Here’s what it means

Everything seems to be going the Democrats’ way on their march for House control in November. Republicans, including House Speaker Paul Ryan, are retiring left and right. Democrats continue to overperform in special elections. Nonpartisan handicappers, including CNN, continue to move more races in the Democrats’ direction. And yet, the […] Read more »

Anti-Incumbent Sentiment Similar to 2010 and 2014 Elections

U.S. voters are about twice as likely to say their U.S. House representative deserves re-election (51%) as they are to say most members of Congress do (26%). These readings are similar to voters’ opinions just days before the 2014 midterm elections and remain among the worst for incumbents dating back […] Read more »

Trump Numbers Are Up. And Down. But Really Unchanged.

New national polls show voters are more upbeat about President Donald Trump’s performance and more pessimistic about the Democrats’ chances of taking back the House. Or not. … It’s best to approach survey results with a dose of common sense. That may make those of us seeking complete objectivity a […] Read more »