The conservative Christian coalition that helped usher President Trump into power in 2016 is planning its largest midterm election mobilization ever, with volunteers fanning out from the church pews to the streets to register voters, raise money and persuade conservatives that they cannot afford to be complacent this year. … […] Read more »
Why the electoral battlefield is expanding
Two recent polls indicating surprising Democratic strength in Senate races across the Southwest underscore how the parties’ shifting demographic and geographic bases of support are widening the electoral battlefield. The surveys, which point to strong Democratic opportunities to capture Republican-held Senate seats in Arizona and Texas, might prove to be […] Read more »
Republicans Are Nervous About Tuesday’s Special Election in Arizona
We’re watching Tuesday’s special election in Arizona closely, not because we expect the Democrats to stage an upset (the congressional district is solidly Republican), but because Republicans are showing concern over the outcome. Here’s what makes this House race interesting. CONT. Jonathan Martin & Denise Lu, New York Times Read more »
Politics Podcast: Should Ted Cruz Actually Be Worried?
The first major public poll of the U.S. Senate race in Texas showed Republican incumbent Ted Cruz leading Democratic congressman Beto O’Rourke by only 3 points. This week, the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast team debates whether there’s reason to believe that the race is actually that close. Fittingly, the crew also […] Read more »
‘I Was Trump Before Trump Was Trump’
Don Blankenship likes to believe he knows something about rough justice and who deserves it. “We don’t need to investigate our president. We need to arrest Hillary,” one of his campaign ads proclaims, mimicking President Trump’s crude 2016 rallying cry, “Lock her up!” … In Republican races across the country, […] Read more »
Risk Factors for 2018 GOP House Incumbents
Multiple indicators, including generic ballot polls , President Trump’s approval ratings and recent special election results, point to midterm danger for Republicans. But without robust race-by-race polling, it’s trickier to predict individual races six months out. Are Democrats the favorites to pick up the 23 seats they need for a […] Read more »