The current conventional wisdom is for the midterm to be somewhat better than average for the president’s party in the House. (I set aside the Senate here.) The fundamentals doubt that, as we’ll see. The “fundamentals” provide a helpful baseline, even if “non-fundamentals” such as polling, candidate quality, unique issues, […] Read more »
A Memo to Democrats
The four of us have been around politics a long time. We have been a part of some of the Democratic Party’s biggest victories; we have seen some big losses. In the 2022 election, things are as close as we have ever seen them. But we are right on the […] Read more »
Voters in battleground states prefer Republican House candidates over Democrats by 6%, survey says
Republicans and Democrats around the nation are statistically tied when it comes to which party voters prefer to control the House of Representatives — but Republicans have a 6-point lead in key battleground states, according to a Penn Program on Opinion Research and Election Studies/SurveyMonkey poll of over 100,000 likely […] Read more »
National UMass Amherst Poll Measures Voters’ Fear, Anger and Worries Approaching Midterm Elections
As the nation approaches the 2022 midterm elections, American voters expressed fear, anger and a great deal of worry in a new national University of Massachusetts Amherst Poll, the results of which were released today. Nearly three-quarters of Democratic voters (74%) and 65% of Republican voters said that they will […] Read more »
Why Republicans Are Winning Swing Voters
After a summer of news that favored Democrats and with just two weeks until the midterms, a major new poll from The Times has found that swing voters are suddenly turning to the Republicans. The Times’s Nate Cohn explains what is behind the trend and what it could mean for […] Read more »
Nevada: Cortez Masto and Laxalt neck and neck in Senate race
Another battleground state, another toss-up contest. In one of Republicans’ best pick-up opportunities, GOP challenger Adam Laxalt and Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto are neck and neck. It’s a nationalized race where voters are aware of the stakes: eight in 10 of each candidate’s supporters see their votes as helping […] Read more »