For two years Democrats have raged over Donald Trump’s presidency, quarreled among themselves over the best strategy for responding to it, and above all, counted the days until next month’s midterm election. The biggest political questions facing Democrats, needless to say, all remain to be decided on election night. But […] Read more »
Both Parties Make it About Trump
For decades, the rule of thumb for campaigns during midterm elections has been the same: When the president is popular, the president’s party tries to nationalize the election, and the opposition attempts to localize it. On the other hand, when the president is unpopular, his party’s nominees try to localize […] Read more »
Trump’s approval rating is in the dumps, even though the economy is soaring. One reason is Trump himself
When the Great Recession hit, it walloped Nevada like no other state, claiming Corry Castaneda among its many victims. … Things changed dramatically as the economy roared back to life. There’s money in the bank now, Castaneda said, and his career, managing commercial real estate, is thriving as Reno and […] Read more »
Good news for the GOP: Many of the most pro-Democrat voters are least certain to vote
Over the weekend, The Washington Post released details from our most recent poll conducted with ABC News. One particular aspect of the poll speaks to the central question about what’s likely to happen in next month’s midterm elections. What’s that question? Who turns out to vote. I know, I know; […] Read more »
Did Minnesota’s Eighth District Really Swing by Almost 20 Points?
Minnesota’s Eighth District is one of a handful of Democratic-held House seats where Republicans have a realistic shot to win in the midterms in three weeks. The incumbent, Rick Nolan, is retiring, and he won by only one percentage point in 2016 in a district President Trump carried by 15. […] Read more »
The Forecast: The many ways the Senate could go on Election Night
… Senate forecast: Republicans will hold 52 seats (and maintain control of the Senate) next Congress while Democrats will hold just 48. Anything between Republicans holding 47 seats and 57 seats is within the margin of error. … Right now, there are an amazing nine races that are within 6 […] Read more »