… Individual House races are fairly hard to predict. They don’t get all that much polling. Sometimes the candidates make a big difference, and sometimes they don’t. There will be lots of idiosyncratic and even “surprising” demographic patterns that emerge on Nov. 6, but the whole reason they’ll be surprises […] Read more »
Uncertainty over a blue wave: NBC News finds Democratic and GOP voter registrations at same level as past election cycles
Less than a month from Election Day, both parties have been focused on registering as many voters as possible and competing to see which holds the advantage in turning out their base. The turnout battle is the most important fight in winning control of Congress. … While determining turnout prior […] Read more »
Beware of Preelection Polling Spin
At this late phase of the electoral season, there is a blur of polling data from different directions and of variable quality. You can pretty much cherry-pick data to support almost any prophecy you want. CONT. Ed Kilgore, New York Magazine Read more »
A Tale of Two Increasingly Divergent Elections
It turns out that the bitter fight over Brett Kavanaugh’s Supreme Court nomination was what I call a color-enhancement event—it made the reds redder and the blues bluer. The old cliché about partisans coming home before an election is true, but the reality for Democrats was that this time, they […] Read more »
CNN poll: Cruz leads O’Rourke with three weeks to go
Texas Republican Sen. Ted Cruz appears well-positioned for re-election over his Democratic challenger Rep. Beto O’Rourke, topping him 52% to 45% among likely voters, a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS finds. CONT. Jennifer Agiesta, CNN Read more »
Don’t expect a big Democratic wave this fall, a new CNBC poll says
With economic optimism soaring in the country, will Democrats be able to sweep to power in either house of Congress or will buoyant sentiment help Republicans keep hold of their Congressional majorities? The latest CNBC All-America Economic Survey offers mixed signals, but leans against a wave Democratic election like that […] Read more »