The claim that an upcoming election “all comes down to turnout” is one of the most venerable clichés in American punditry. But it’s become more popular than ever in an era when the mass public is commonly characterized as consisting of two implacable partisan tribes, equally unshakable in their preferences […] Read more »
NBC/WSJ Poll: Democrats hold 9-point advantage for midterm elections
Fueled by increased enthusiasm from women, Latinos and young voters for the upcoming midterm election, Democrats hold a 9-point lead among likely voters over Republicans in congressional preference, according to the latest national NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll. But nearly two weeks before Election Day, the same poll also shows […] Read more »
For President Trump, it’s 2016 all over again
If you haven’t looked up recently, President Trump is everywhere. He is campaigning across the country at a frenetic pace. … No president in modern memory has done what Trump is doing right now. Despite an approval rating that has been underwater since the start of his presidency, he has […] Read more »
House Democrats’ hope for wave election diminishes as Republicans rebound
Democratic hopes for a wave election next month that would carry them to a significant House majority have been tempered in recent weeks amid a shifting political landscape and a torrent of hard-hitting attack ads from Republicans. … To galvanize their voters, Republicans are airing attack ads that argue Democrats […] Read more »
Republicans could keep the House. Here’s how.
… The forecast that I created with Parker Quinn and Brice Acree currently gives Democrats a 226 to Republicans 209 edge after the midterm elections. Yet, it’s not as if all hope is lost for Republicans at this point. Indeed, I would point out that it’s important to watch the […] Read more »
Nine kinds of races that will decide the fate of the House
With 18 days until Election Day, Democrats are the clear favorites to take the House, thanks to President Donald Trump’s poor approval ratings, a historic number of GOP open seats and record-shattering Democratic fundraising. But it’s not a done deal yet. Roughly a sixth of America will decide the House. […] Read more »