The contest for control of the House remains close and hard fought, according to a new Washington Post-Schar School poll of the most-contested districts in the country, with Democrats holding a statistically insignificant lead over Republicans. The latest survey shows only a marginal change in the race during October, with […] Read more »
The tables have turned on health care in 2018
No policy decision during former President Barack Obama’s first two years contributed more to the Democratic loss of the House of Representatives in 2010 than the party’s drive to pass the Affordable Care Act. Now, no policy decision in President Trump’s first two years is boosting Democratic hopes of recapturing […] Read more »
Poll: Runoff is very possible in Mississippi Senate race
The free-for-all special Senate election in Mississippi has a strong chance of heading to a November 27 runoff, where appointed Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith, R-Miss., would have early the advantage, according to a new NBC News/Marist poll of the state. CONT. Mark Murray, NBC News Read more »
What Could Hold Back a Democratic Wave? Economy, Confidence, Independence.
… Lost in all the talk about a Democratic blue wave is a set of sober reality checks — from the quantifiable to the emotional — that may help Republicans reduce their losses, and possibly even retain their 23-seat majority. In many neighborhoods with key House races, daily life is […] Read more »
What Nate Silver’s learned about forecasting elections
This close to an election, who do I want to hear from? Nate Silver, of course. I sat down with the FiveThirtyEight founder and math wizard to talk about how he builds his forecasting models, what they’re saying about 2018, how big the Democrats’ structural disadvantage in the House and […] Read more »
CNN Poll: Democrats up in Florida with two weeks to go
As the final two weeks of campaigning begin, Democrats hold an edge in both the gubernatorial and Senate contests in the key state of Florida, according to a new CNN Poll conducted by SSRS. Democratic nominee Andrew Gillum holds a wide 12-point edge over his Republican opponent Rep. Ron DeSantis […] Read more »