Just 1 in 4 people thinks Brett Kavanaugh was completely honest when he heatedly rebuffed charges of sexual assault and heavy drinking during his Supreme Court confirmation hearing, and Republicans and Democrats hold starkly divergent views of whether his sworn testimony to senators was credible, a poll released Friday showed. […] Read more »
Republicans Have a Latino Problem
Donald Trump’s improbable victory and controversial presidency have made the upcoming mid-term elections one of the most closely watched congressional contests in recent times. As Election Day draws near, a plethora of pundits are offering both dire and optimistic forecasts about the Democrat’s chances of retaking the House and Senate. […] Read more »
Senate And Governor Races Are Diverging Sharply In Some States
More and more Americans vote for the same party up and down the ballot these days. But some people still split their tickets. Who? Where? Well, we can use our forecast data to try to answer that. There are 22 states holding multiple statewide races this year — meaning a […] Read more »
For a Change, Democrats Seem Set to Equal or Exceed Republicans in Turnout
A wide range of evidence indicates that Democratic voters are poised to vote in numbers unseen in a midterm election in at least a decade. Democrats have largely erased the turnout deficit that hobbled them during the Obama presidency, according to results from more than 50 New York Times Upshot/Siena […] Read more »
A Shift in GOP Fortunes
The most dramatic change over the last six weeks in the midterm election picture is clearly in the Senate, but the House situation has subtly changed as well. Not long ago, the most likely outcome for the Senate was either no net change at all, or a shift of one […] Read more »
A Referendum on Trump or Pelosi?
At the beginning of this cycle, I had conversations with strategists on both sides about the challenges for each party going into 2018. Democrats were worried that Trump had his own ‘brand’ that would make it hard to try and link GOP candidates to the unorthodox and unconventional president. Trying […] Read more »