Election Beat 2022: Will turnout, swing voters or sheer luck decide the midterms?

The U.S. midterm election campaign has been going on for months, with upwards of $5 billion having been spent to sway the vote. All that spending has not been wasted, but it will account for far less than more persistent factors in determining the outcome of the midterms. One factor […] Read more »

Nevada: Latinos could tip the scales in senatorial and gubernatorial races

In Nevada, a close contest could determine the balance of power in the U.S. Senate for the second half of Joe Biden’s presidential term. The outcome of the election between the current Democratic Senator, Catherine Cortez Masto, and Republican Adam Laxalt, a candidate endorsed by former President Donald Trump, could […] Read more »

Democrats Must Still Close On The Cost-Of-Living

The Democrats have lost ground in this survey from +3 overall margin to even in this survey — and to -2 in the likely electorate. That is driven by Democrats not addressing the top issue, cost of living, where they lost 3 points to be 3 points down and Republicans […] Read more »

Pennsylvania Senate contest narrows

The party bases are consolidating around their candidates in the Pennsylvania Senate race, now a toss-up contest with Lt. Gov. John Fetterman ahead by two points heading into their debate Tuesday night. He led by five points a month ago. To the extent there is attitudinal change, it’s partly driven […] Read more »