Democrats maintain a strong position to retake the U.S. House, but the party’s base of less-frequent voters and concerns about illegal immigration stand out as wild cards in the final days before Tuesday’s midterm elections, according to a new Washington Post-Schar School poll of likely voters in battleground congressional districts. […] Read more »
CNN poll: Close Senate races in Florida and Tennessee before Election Day
Florida voters are almost evenly split on both the state’s Senate and gubernatorial contests, while the Senate contest in Tennessee appears to be shifting in the Republican’s favor, according to new CNN polls conducted by SSRS. CONT. Grace Sparks, CNN Read more »
Trump Is in Triage Mode
… In the final days of the midterm campaign, Trump and other Republicans are focusing their closing arguments on cultural confrontations, from immigration to the bitter confirmation fight over Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh. … GOP candidates appear to have lost faith that they can win the argument with voters […] Read more »
Where things stand less than a week out
We have great news for everyone. In just six days, the 2020 presidential campaign will begin! (No, we’re really not kidding.) But before then, we have the small matter of the 2018 midterm to settle. We’re still agonizing over our final picks in the closest House, Senate, and gubernatorial races. […] Read more »
How Republicans could hold the House
In 2018, will the story be about turnout? Probably not. The empirical fact is that turnout does not display a systematic bias in American national elections, despite the typically lower turnout rate of Democratic partisans and the greater effort by Democratic campaigns to get out the vote. Two more powerful […] Read more »
The Great Center-Right Delusion
What’s driving American politics off a cliff? Racial hatred and the cynicism of politicians willing to exploit it play a central role. But there are other factors. And an opinion piece by Hertel-Fernandez, Mildenberger, and Stokes in today’s Times (which is actually social science, not opinion!) seems to confirm something […] Read more »