For Democrats, the victories, near wins and stinging losses on Tuesday have intensified a debate in the party about how to retake the White House, with moderates arguing they must find a candidate who can appeal to President Trump’s supporters and historically Republican suburbanites, and progressives claiming they need someone […] Read more »
2018: What really happened?
… No, it’s not regression to the mean, it’s not a statistical artifact. The shift from 2016 to 2018—the Democrats gaining strength in Republican strongholds—is real. And it can have implications for statewide and presidential elections as well. This is also consistent with results we saw in various special elections […] Read more »
These 5 charts explain who voted how in the 2018 midterm election
The 2018 midterm election dramatically shifted the balance of power in the House of Representatives, from Republican to Democratic control. Many expected that, given President Trump’s relatively low approval rating. Historically, that had meant the president’s party would lose many House races. Pre-election polling largely confirmed the likely Democratic takeover. […] Read more »
Blue waves and white bubbles: What America’s growing diversity portends for the GOP
In many ways, two Americas voted Tuesday: One that is large, white, and shrinking; another that’s far smaller, more racially, ethnically and culturally diverse -– and growing inexorably. Look back a generation: 91 percent of voters in 1990 were white. Tuesday, 72 percent were white, the fewest on record for […] Read more »
The Economy Didn’t Save Republicans After All
Unemployment is abnormally low. Growth has sped up. A $1.5 trillion tax cut, signed by President Trump last year, is fueling consumer spending. Faced with strong Democratic enthusiasm and fund-raising, and hindered by an unpopular president, Republicans were counting on that economic strength to lift them at the polls, or […] Read more »
What the ‘Trump tax’ cost Republicans
… The Trump tax is conceptually the difference between where President Trump’s approval ratings are and where a more typical Republican president’s would be given national conditions. A Vox analysis in 2016 suggested that Trump was running several points behind a generic Republican presidential nominee in that election. As John […] Read more »