The Democratic takeover of the House of Representatives in Tuesday’s voting not only followed the historical pattern of the president’s party losing seats in the midterms but it fulfilled expectations set by the political environment. Gallup’s national polling this fall found relatively high public displeasure with President Donald Trump and […] Read more »
The Rising American Electorate and white working class strike back
The Democrats had a very big election on Tuesday, with a 5-point national congressional margin that allowed them to pick up 32 House seats, to elect a record-breaking 100 women to the House, and to flip six statehouses and seven governors’ mansions. Democrats now occupy nearly half of the 50 […] Read more »
Senate: Geography is Destiny – Part II
… One of the premises we have talked about all cycle is that if Republicans won a majority of the seats in the Toss Up column, then geography would be political destiny because it meant that Democrats lost the seats they were defending in red states. If, on the other […] Read more »
GOP Didn’t Have a Turnout Problem, It Had a Focus Problem
Did the 2018 midterm electorate break new political ground as the media had predicted for months or was it déjà vu all over again? The answer is both. In my last column before the election, I suggested that four key measurements would tell the story of this year’s midterms: party […] Read more »
Why Aren’t Democrats More Excited About the 2018 Results?
… Democrats wanted this election to be about more than just winning the House or the Senate. They wanted 2018 to be a total rebuke of Trump. A wipe out of epic proportions all across the country. That didn’t happen. What we saw instead was more of a retrenchment. Red […] Read more »
What 2018 Elections Could Tell Us About The 2020 Presidential Map
President Trump claimed some personal victories in the 2018 midterm results, and as he ticked them off at a press conference on Wednesday he might as well have been walking through the Electoral College map for 2020. … As the president and his political advisers map out a strategy to […] Read more »