Democrats had a great showing in the 2018 midterm elections. But even in such a strong year, they sometimes struggled to match their traditional support in electorally significant areas — with serious implications for 2020. Their triumph was a somewhat narrow one, concentrated in well-educated, affluent communities. Over all, the […] Read more »
Congressional Approval Stable at 21%
Americans’ approval of the way Congress is handling its job held steady at 21% in a Nov. 1-11 Gallup survey, unchanged from October. While low historically, that level generally matches the high ebb for congressional approval in the past few years, except for a 28% reading shortly after President Donald […] Read more »
2018 rewrote the main rule of US politics
So much for the old rule that all politics is local. … In virtually every state, Democrats last Tuesday displayed a clear advantage in densely populated, culturally and racially diverse white-collar metropolitan areas, while Republicans relied on elevated margins in the preponderantly white, religiously traditional, smaller places beyond them. In […] Read more »
The midterms show Trump does not defy political gravity
… It turns out that Trump does not walk on political water. He does not defy political gravity. This is very bad news for him heading into the 2020 campaign. Trump was elected President with the worst favorable rating ever. This led many to speculate that traditional measures of gauging […] Read more »
In suburban South, Democrats break into Republican strongholds
Democrats may call Tuesday’s election a wave, but look closer and you’ll see the latest evidence of a longer-term shift in the suburban vote away from the Republican Party. This metropolitan realignment was so powerful this year that its impacts were felt in places that until now had largely been […] Read more »
For Democrats, a midterm election that keeps on giving
… This was always an election that would test the strength of the economy, which favored the president’s party, vs. the president’s low approval ratings, which, along with the record of past midterm elections, pointed to Democratic gains. In the end, history and presidential approval combined to give Democrats control […] Read more »