The big guns are out. Donald Trump has three rallies planned before election day. Barack Obama has popped up in several battleground states. The former presidents will, separately, converge on Pennsylvania at the weekend, where Obama will be joined by a lesser-spotted figure on the trail: President Biden. What’s at […] Read more »
Pre-election polling trends
Here is my look at the pre-election polling, as of Nov. 5, 2022. The raw polling data is from FiveThirtyEight.com, who generously allow download of their polling database. The trends are my estimates and not those of FiveThirtyEight or anyone else. I include both LV and RV poll results because […] Read more »
These Two Big Unknowns Make the 2022 Midterms Unusually Unpredictable
Here are a few things to keep in mind about the next week’s midterm elections. Let me start with a preface. The Democrats could do fairly badly on Tuesday yet still better than presidential parties have historically performed in similar situations. This could be true without the election providing a […] Read more »
Why New Hampshire may deliver a Senate surprise
Political buffs have been saying for weeks that the race for Senate control will come down to three or four states: Georgia, Nevada and Pennsylvania, with Arizona sometimes thrown in. But is that list too limited? Political history – and a spat of late spending in the race – suggests […] Read more »
Where we are headed into Election Day
We are just a hair away from Election Day, and so much history has already happened. Sky-high inflation, the worst in a generation, the overturn of the federal right to abortion, and the results of a presidential election violently contested. All this is the political and economic context framing this […] Read more »
Florida: DeSantis grows to double-digit lead, Rubio widens gap
It’s nearly Election Day, and the frontrunners in Florida’s biggest political horse races are maintaining — or expanding — their leads. An exclusive Spectrum News/Siena College poll snapshots opinions and preferences of 659 likely voters from Oct. 30 through Nov. 1, 2022 with a 4.4% margin of error. Gov. Ron […] Read more »