Just as Democrats did in 2020, Republicans came into the 2022 midterms expecting a landslide. Sky-high inflation, an unpopular President, and pessimism about the direction of the country all pointed to a ‘typical’ midterm romp for the party out of power. But, as we have written extensively over the last […] Read more »
Democrats fend off headwinds from Biden and economy: Exit poll analysis
Democrats pushed back against historic trends in the 2022 midterms, overcoming broadly negative economic attitudes and Joe Biden’s unpopularity to hold more seats than typical in the face of such headwinds. Their competitiveness came down to a variety of factors — support for abortion rights, negative views of Donald Trump, […] Read more »
The Midterms Are a Shocking Vote of Confidence for Democrats
It is the normal state of affairs for a newly elected president to see his party rebuked decisively in the first midterm election. When the president is presiding over a bad economy — and, despite low unemployment, this very much is one — this tendency becomes something close to an […] Read more »
If Democrats prevail during the midterms, TV advertising might have something to do with it
A vote sign appears at a campaign event for Nevada Gov. Steve Sisolak and U.S. Sen. Catherine Cortez Mastro in Las Vegas on Nov. 1, 2022. Ronda Churchill/AFP via Getty Images John M. Sides, Vanderbilt University The neck-and-neck race for control of the U.S. Senate is particularly unwelcome news for […] Read more »
Final Forecast: The Senate And Most Of Its Key Races Are Toss-Ups
Just about no part of the 2022 midterms is more uncertain than the race for control of the U.S. Senate. The chamber is split 50-50 between Democrats and Republicans,1 but Democrats hold a precarious majority via the tie-breaking vote of Vice President Kamala Harris. As a result, a one-seat gain […] Read more »
Final Forecast: Republicans Are Favored To Win The House
Election Day is finally upon us, and we’re “right back where we started from,” to borrow a phrase from Maxine Nightingale. FiveThirtyEight’s Deluxe forecast for the U.S. House, which is now final and no longer updating, estimates that Republicans have an 84-in-100 chance of taking control of the chamber. That’s […] Read more »