Key Points• The looming Georgia Senate runoff is both the final race of 2022 and the first race of 2024, a Senate cycle in which Democrats are playing a lot of defense.• The Democrats could run the Senate more smoothly if they can get a “real” majority of 51.• But […] Read more »
Republicans prefer Ron DeSantis to Donald Trump as their 2024 presidential nominee
Nowhere is the impact of the Republican Party’s election underperformance more apparent than in changes in how Republicans view former President Donald Trump, who announced his 2024 candidacy Tuesday, after the close of the latest Economist/YouGov Poll. Before the election, 60% of Republicans wanted Trump to run again in 2024. […] Read more »
Why no red wave?
History said there should be a red wave. After all, on average, in the 19 midterms between the end of World War II and this one, the White House party lost 27 House seats, and four in the Senate. And these were not average times. The president’s approval rating was […] Read more »
The Red Wave Didn’t Just Vanish
On Election Day, a small but crucial percentage of Republican voters deserted their party, casting ballots for Democratic nominees in several elections that featured Trump-backed candidates at the top of the ticket. These Trump-driven defections wrought havoc on Republican ranks. At the extreme, a once-strong Republican Party in Michigan was […] Read more »
It was all about the independents, again
… According to the Edison Research preliminary exit polls, independents were without question the most critical voter group in this election. In fact, they made up 31 percent of the electorate, the largest percentage going back as far as the 1980 election. While the exit polls showed independents growing, it […] Read more »
These 17 Swing Voters Have a Very Clear Message for Donald Trump
When Donald Trump was president, you rarely heard Trump voters blame him when anything went wrong; it was the Democrats’ fault, usually, or the deep state or Robert Mueller or the F.B.I. or was due to any number of conspiracy theories. Which is why it was striking, during our focus […] Read more »