The political outlook has changed pretty dramatically in recent months, though not in the way you might think. Even though U.S. coronavirus deaths now surpass the capacity of FedEx Field, these changes aren’t directly related to the pandemic. Nor do they stem directly from our current economic downturn, the most […] Read more »
Changes in Candidate Evaluations over the Campaign Season: A Comparison of House, Senate, and Presidential Races
Campaigns devote considerable resources to persuading potential voters to support their own candidate over the opposition. Yet, less is well known about the dynamics of candidate support at the aggregate and individual level. … In this paper, we provide two contributions to the study of campaigns. First, we provide a […] Read more »
Can Republican recruits win in Democratic districts?
Republican Rep.-elect Mike Garcia made history in California this week. The former Navy fighter pilot and defense contractor became the first Republican to flip a Democratic-held congressional seat in the state since 1998. It was the first time in nearly a decade that Republicans won a Democratic seat in any […] Read more »
California race shows why the election for president is close
Voters are less than six months away from the election between President Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden. Neither candidate is likely to emerge with a landslide victory, as it is clear that the race is far from over. Though one could argue that Biden holds an advantage, given […] Read more »
Crisis exposes how America has hollowed out its government
The government’s halting response to the coronavirus pandemic represents the culmination of chronic structural weaknesses, years of underinvestment and political rhetoric that has undermined the public trust — conditions compounded by President Trump’s open hostility to a federal bureaucracy that has been called upon to manage the crisis. … Public […] Read more »
California’s Warning Signs for Democrats
… For the first time in more than two decades, Republicans in California wrested a seat from Democrats. Mike Garcia, a political novice running as a supporter of President Trump, defeated Assemblywoman Christy Smith, a centrist Democrat, by around 10 percentage points. The outcome was neither an earth-shattering victory that […] Read more »