Looking ahead to November, the presidential race could decide more than just who the next president is. It could also determine which party controls the Senate or House or even a state’s legislature. And that’s because of something political science calls the “coattail effect,” which is when the popularity of […] Read more »
Senate Republicans’ Spending Is Almost Entirely Defensive
Enough of the talk about the possibility of another split between electoral and popular votes for president, which would be the third in 20 years. Here’s a better challenge for 2020 election aficionados: First, if Republicans only hold onto one thing, is it more likely to be the White House […] Read more »
Changing Southwest may bring Democrats a milestone win
In a critical mark of the shifting political landscape, Democrats in November could secure a clean sweep of the Senate seats from the four key Southwestern states — a milestone the party hasn’t reached in nearly 80 years. … Even as Democrats struggle to maintain their position in slow-growing, predominantly […] Read more »
How the Trump Effect Could Lift Democratic Senate Candidates
A driving theme of Republican Party politics circa 2020 is consolidation. The G.O.P. has tightened its ranks; its reliable voters, hovering at around 40 percent of the electorate, tend to approve of almost anything President Trump does. Yet throughout his term, from the 2017 battles over health care and tax […] Read more »
Majority Continue to Call Trump’s Response a Failure
This release features findings from a national online survey of 1,011 registered voters conducted May 15-May 18, 2020. • Barack Obama is significantly more popular than Donald Trump, and the public places far more blame on the Trump administration for America’s failure to prepare for coronavirus than on the Obama […] Read more »
Fauci More Trusted Than Trump on Reopening
This edition of our daily tracking release features findings from a national online survey of 1,011 registered voters conducted May 15-May 18, 2020. • Trump’s approval on his handling of the pandemic has hit yet another low in our tracking.• Americans trust Dr. Fauci and Democrats more than Trump on […] Read more »