We’re less than four months from the 2020 election, and President Trump is in a bad way. A slew of national polls show him losing to Joe Biden by an average of around nine points; swing-state polls almost universally show Biden leading; and worry is growing on the right not […] Read more »
Reminder for Democrats: Politics won’t stop after November
Democrats’ near-term opportunities shouldn’t obscure the longer-term problems the party faces. First, from the time of his likely election in November and his inauguration in January, President Joe Biden will find himself under attack not only from the GOP but also from elements within his own party. … After eight […] Read more »
States of Play: Georgia
Key Points• Over the last few decades, Georgia has gone from a swing state to reliably GOP. But it’s now looking like a genuinely competitive state again.• Democrats have made major inroads in both urban Atlanta and its suburbs, but their gains have been somewhat blunted by the sharp Republican […] Read more »
This year’s Senate races spell disaster for the Republican Party
Republicans are beginning to gird themselves for a landslide defeat for President Trump that drags the entire party down. It could be even worse than they think. Elections in both the House and Senate are increasingly syncing with broader presidential races. In 2016, every Senate race was won by the […] Read more »
A simple forecast suggests a Democratic sweep in 2020
The covid-19-driven economic collapse, upheaval over racial politics in the United States and President Trump’s consistently low popularity ratings have given Democrats an opening to win the presidency and both houses of Congress in 2020. Our prediction, based on economic indicators and presidential approval ratings, provides a simple, albeit early, […] Read more »
Trump could sink the House GOP in suburbia
President Donald Trump’s continuing erosion among well-educated voters looms as perhaps the most imposing headwind to Republican hopes of recapturing the House of Representatives in November — or even avoiding further losses in the chamber. … In recent weeks, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and other party groups have publicly […] Read more »