… After a tumultuous first term, Trump has seen his support erode across the country, even in deeply conservative rural areas that have been a bedrock of his support, and he is racing to stem any lasting damage. A series of national polls have shown a narrowing of his once-dominating […] Read more »
This Election, Republicans Should Take Nothing for Granted
Whether you’re a Republican or a Democrat, liberal or conservative, predisposed toward labor or business, your eyes should now be squarely pointed to the races below the presidential level. … For some time, pollsters of all stripes have been seeing that Trump’s political problems were metastasizing and now infecting many […] Read more »
Fearing a ‘Blood Bath,’ Republican Senators Begin to Edge Away From Trump
For nearly four years, congressional Republicans have ducked and dodged an unending cascade of offensive statements and norm-shattering behavior from President Trump, ignoring his caustic and scattershot Twitter feed and penchant for flouting party orthodoxy, and standing quietly by as he abandoned military allies, attacked American institutions and stirred up […] Read more »
Election 2020: A Fortnight and Five Days Away
Key Points• With 19 days to go before the election, Joe Biden’s lead in the presidential race remains steady, although his national lead is bigger than his leads in the most crucial swing states.• In the Senate, Republicans appear to be getting some traction against Sen. Gary Peters (D-MI), although […] Read more »
Forecasting the 2020 U.S. Senate Elections Using Presidential Polling Data
Key Points• Senate elections have become increasingly tied to presidential voting results.• This shows up in this year’s polling, as the margins for states’ presidential and Senate races are closely linked.• An analysis of these polling data suggest that Democrats are likely to achieve a net gain of between one […] Read more »
Majority says wait on the SCOTUS seat; 6 in 10 favor upholding Roe
Six in 10 registered voters say the U.S. Supreme Court should uphold Roe v. Wade as the basis of abortion law in the United States, and a majority in an ABC News/Washington Post poll — albeit now a narrow one — says the Senate should delay filling the court’s current […] Read more »