Our most recent national poll of 1,000 likely voters was completed on the cusp of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine just as President Biden was trying to publicly face down Vladimir Putin and rally the world to oppose the invasion. Normally, at times of crisis the American public rallies to support […] Read more »
Are the 2022 midterms a done deal?
Mid-term season is upon us. All signs point to it going well for the GOP; in fact, our preliminary forecast gives Democrats just a one in ten chance of retaining control of both the Senate and the House. The big question is less “Will the Republicans win,” but, “How much […] Read more »
Fox News Poll: Republicans maintain advantage in generic midterm ballot
In an early snapshot of the 2022 midterm elections, Republicans maintain a narrow advantage over Democrats on the generic congressional ballot — as voters say they are less likely to support a candidate endorsed by either President Joe Biden or former President Donald Trump, according to the latest Fox News […] Read more »
Foreign Policy Unlikely To Save Democrats in the Fall
… While we don’t know the trajectory that the Russia/Ukraine crisis will take, and there are many factors that can impact on midterm elections, we do know that in the absence of a large number of U.S. military deaths, Americans rarely vote on foreign-policy issues, particularly in midterms. The state […] Read more »
As Ohio became reliably red, the Republican Party was changing
Once upon a time, Ohio was a swing state. While it was slightly more Republican than the country as a whole, the Buckeye State voted with the winning presidential nominee fourteen consecutive elections, from 1964 to 2016. But that now seems like ancient history. … What is strange is how […] Read more »
Redistricting and Competition in Congressional Elections
Key Points• Based on presidential voting patterns, a much larger proportion of U.S. House districts strongly favor one party and a much smaller proportion are closely divided than 50 years ago.• However, gerrymandering is not the major reason for this trend. Partisan polarization has increased dramatically in U.S. states and […] Read more »