Anti-Trump GOP voters mostly loyal in 2022, but not entirely

… While former President Donald Trump holds a tight grasp on much of the GOP base, there is a notable minority of Republican voters who do not consider themselves MAGA members. Most of them, as faithful Republicans, backed GOP candidates in 2022, AP VoteCast shows. Still, the extensive national survey […] Read more »

Why Joe Biden is playing defense on crime

The Senate this week passed a Republican-led resolution to overturn a Washington, DC, crime law, which critics have argued is soft on violent criminals. Almost two-thirds of Senate Democrats backed the measure after President Joe Biden announced an about-face by saying he wouldn’t veto the legislation to nullify that law. […] Read more »

National Swing Women Voters Executive Summary

Funded by Horizon Strategies and directed entirely by the two companies, we took an in-depth look at two small, but consequential groups in the electorate: Republican women who did not vote straight party in 2022 and Independent women who voted for candidates of both parties. CONTINUED Nicole McCleskey (Public Opinion […] Read more »

Republicans Retain Edge in Electoral College Tie

Key Points• If no candidate receives a majority of Electoral College votes, the U.S. House of Representatives elected in the 2024 election would decide the presidency.• Republicans are very likely to continue to control enough House delegations to select the GOP nominee as the winner, meaning that 269 is effectively […] Read more »

While Californians view Newsom in very positive terms, clouds loom with regard to his managing the state’s impending budget deficit.

The latest Berkeley IGS Poll finds that when state voters are asked their opinions of six high profile California politicians, Governor Gavin Newsom receives the best rating, with 54% viewing him favorably and 41% unfavorable. Newsom job approval rating is similar (55% approve vs. 39% disapprove). Yet, clouds loom on […] Read more »

Democrats have been doing well in special elections in 2023

Democrat Jennifer McClellan easily won the special election for Virginia’s 4th Congressional District last week. The fact that a Democrat comfortably retained a Democratic seat in a district President Joe Biden would have won under its new lines by 36 points in 2020 is not surprising. What is notable is […] Read more »