Late on election night 2016, it was Wisconsin and Pennsylvania that put Donald Trump over the top and into the White House, thanks to late-deciding voters who went his way, and big margins among people who wanted change. Today, the vast majority of voters in these two states say things […] Read more »
Summer ad spending shows Trump in retreat, defense in key states
If you want to know what a campaign really thinks about its chances, you don’t listen to what it says, you watch where it puts its money. This week’s Data Download is looking at how the President Donald Trump and Joe Biden teams (and their main affiliated outside groups) have […] Read more »
The Voting Will End Nov. 3. The Legal Battle Probably Won’t.
The stormy once-in-a-lifetime Florida recount battle that polarized the nation in 2000 and left the Supreme Court to decide the presidency may soon look like a high school student council election compared with what could be coming after this November’s election. Imagine not just another Florida, but a dozen Floridas. […] Read more »
Shy Trump Voters Depressing His Poll Numbers?
… Political pendulums can swing back forth quickly and so can polls. But one issue that has surfaced in the news media after some state polling failures in 2016 is the claim of the “shy Trump voter.” This is the assertion by some pundits and politicians that polls undercount Trump’s […] Read more »
The Missing Group of Voters in 2020
… This year, pollsters seem to agree that President Donald Trump has been leaking support among several groups who supported him four years ago, including suburban, college-educated voters; voters over the age of 65 who are understandably quite concerned about the pandemic; and even white, blue-collar voters who have been […] Read more »
America is in a parenting crisis. The party that solves it will reap huge rewards.
America is in a parenting crisis. The financial costs of child care are soaring; most new parents don’t take the amount of leave they want; and many face the impossible task of balancing full-time work and caring for their children. The coronavirus pandemic has only exacerbated these problems, with many […] Read more »