Key Points• Kamala Harris, long seen as a frontrunner to be Joe Biden’s running mate, represents a vetted, qualified, and safe VP choice.• Harris is the latest in a long line of Democratic senators who have become running mates. If she becomes vice president, Democrats should not have any real […] Read more »
The Veepstakes Are Almost Over
After missing multiple self-imposed deadlines, presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden is expected to announce his running mate this week. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew discusses the conflict within the Democratic Party over who that pick should be and why the campaign has floated disparate and […] Read more »
Political Conventions, Polls, and “Moneyball 2020”
With the Covid-19 pandemic, the conventions will look vastly different from previous years. In this episode, Julian Zelizer and Sam Wang discuss the run-up to the Republican and Democratic National Conventions. They look at how a virtual convention might affect election coverage, voter enthusiasm, and rising political talent. Later in […] Read more »
Surveys in three key battleground states show Biden leading Trump
New surveys in three key battleground states show former Vice President Joe Biden with solid leads over President Donald Trump as both candidates head into their nominating conventions later this month. Biden’s advantage in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin is largely the result of consolidating the Democratic vote and attracting support […] Read more »
Trump Faces Eroding Support On Economy, Major Challenges with Independent, Suburban, Middle Class Voters
With a highly energized and polarized electorate, President Trump faces eroding support on the economy and with key demographic groups just 85 days until the election. These findings in the latest Georgetown Institute of Politics and Public Service Battleground Poll, conducted by Republican pollster Ed Goeas and Democratic pollster Celinda […] Read more »
Another electoral college-popular vote split? It’s possible
New CBS News/YouGov polls from Pennsylvania and Wisconsin seem to tell a familiar story. Former Vice President Joe Biden leads President Donald Trump by six points among likely voters in both states (49% to 43% in Pennsylvania and 48% to 42% in Wisconsin). Biden’s advantages in those states are nothing […] Read more »