… The fact that the conventional wisdom was wrong in 2016 has clearly had a big effect on people’s perceptions and not necessarily in a good way. A plurality of Americans thought that the Republicans would hold onto the House in 2018, even as polling suggested otherwise. They were blown […] Read more »
It’s Biden’s to lose (and he still could): State of the race after the conventions
The election is Joe Biden’s to lose as he continues to hold a lead over President Donald Trump coming out of the Democratic and Republican conventions, which mark the start of the fall campaign. But the future is unknowable. Data has its limits. Surprises happen. The world can change quickly, […] Read more »
Trump’s still in trouble in first post-convention polling
President Donald Trump wanted a large bounce coming out of the Republican National Convention, and early evidence is that he did not receive one. Trump may have gotten a small bump out of his convention, but he still clearly trails former Vice President Joe Biden. If later polling data confirms […] Read more »
Trump’s favorability and perceptions of COVID-19 response stagnate post-convention
President Donald Trump’s efforts to build his appeal and define his opponent at the Republican National Convention, using pageantry and the White House as the backdrop, had little apparent impact on the electorate’s impressions of both him and former Vice President Joe Biden, a new ABC News/Ipsos poll finds. Trump’s […] Read more »
Democrats have voter registration advantage in four states
Even before the COVID-19 outbreak and the economic slump, President Donald Trump faced a big challenge in his 2020 re-election effort: a changing American electorate. Young voters have been a challenge for Trump since he entered politics (he lost voters under 40 by double digits in 2016) and every year […] Read more »
Trump is the president of the loud minority, not silent majority
I’ve spent a lot of time talking about the importance of the 50% mark for former Vice President Joe Biden. Biden, unlike Hillary Clinton four years ago, is consistently hitting and exceeding 50% in the polls, which means President Donald Trump can’t just count on late deciders to put him […] Read more »