… In his speech closing out the convention’s final session Thursday night, Trump warned about “mob rule,” building upon a speech he made last week in which he pitched himself as the “only thing standing between the American Dream and total anarchy, madness and chaos.” Despite all of it occurring […] Read more »
Why Democrats are worried about Kenosha
Former Vice President Joe Biden and President Donald Trump both recognize the potential political fallouts if protests in the wake of the Jacob Blake shooting are seen as peaceful or as violent. Biden benefits if they are seen as the former, while Trump is helped if they are seen as […] Read more »
Conventions Can Boost the Incumbent. Did It Work This Time?
The last two presidential re-election campaigns followed a similar playbook: define the opposition early on the most important issue, emphasize a few cultural wedge issues to rally the base while appealing to a few swing voters, and reinvigorate supporters at the convention. It was enough for George W. Bush in […] Read more »
Convention Closeout
On this week’s episode of Poll Hub, the DNC and RNC have wrapped their conventions. Will they have any impact on public opinion? We share our analysis. Then, enthusiasm for this year’s presidential election is up. We discuss why. Plus, our friends at the Pew Research Center released new numbers […] Read more »
Religion Takes Larger Role for Democrats This Year
It looks to me as if religion is going to be a bigger part of the presidential election process this year than it has been historically. This, to some extent, reflects a renewed emphasis on religion by Democrats and Joe Biden’s campaign, particularly as evidenced during the recent Democratic National […] Read more »
Four Years Later, It’s Still All About the Base
… Trump is trailing, not because he’s losing his 2016 base, but because he has never expanded beyond it. This week I dug into the most recent national poll from Pew research (7/27-8/2) and compared it with the results of their 2016 validated vote survey (basically, a post-election exit poll […] Read more »