Key Points• Joe Biden is better positioned to win the presidency than Donald Trump, but it would be foolish to rule out another Trump upset.• Trump’s potential winning map would look a lot like 2016, with perhaps a few changes; Biden’s potential winning map might feature Democratic advances in the […] Read more »
Frank Luntz: Can Donald Trump win?
With just two months until the US presidential election, the polls show the incumbent Donald Trump trailing Democrat Joe Biden by a significant margin. Can he turn it around? CONT. HARDtalk, BBC The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign […] Read more »
All the ‘Rage’: Where the 2020 presidential race stands
With the two national conventions in the rearview mirror and the 2020 election less than two months away, President Donald Trump still finds himself in a deep hole and needing to change the trajectory of the presidential race. … Biden remains a clear favorite in the race. As I have […] Read more »
Joe Biden might win in a landslide. That would make things more complicated.
For weeks, the mantra of the data nerd has been that President Trump can still win reelection. The Democratic nightmare scenario — Trump loses the popular vote but again wins the electoral college — is very much still on the table. But the same statistical models that show a path […] Read more »
The 2016 and 2020 races: What’s different?
… Modelers at FiveThirtyEight give Biden a 71 percent chance of winning, while The Economist’s statisticians set the chances at 84 percent. But not so fast. One could travel back to September 2016, substitute Hillary Clinton for Biden and The New York Times for The Economist, and written the same […] Read more »
Biden leads by 9 in Pennsylvania
Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden leads President Donald Trump by a 9-point margin among likely voters in Pennsylvania, a key swing state where Biden was born, according to a new NBC News/Marist poll. … Trump gets upside-down job approval from the Keystone State, although he still maintains an advantage on […] Read more »