Most voters have made up their minds about how they will vote for president, with results suggesting very close elections in each of the three Sun Belt states included in this project. … Swing voters are younger, have more moderate views, and a larger share are Hispanic voters, and also […] Read more »
Younger voters choose Biden over Trump — but they’re not wild about either
Every election cycle, Democratic political operatives rack their brains about how to motivate a voting bloc that’s both reliably on their side of the ballot and unreliable about actually showing up: younger voters. … But what are younger voters actually telling pollsters about the election — and what do they […] Read more »
Why Republicans Still Don’t Care About Climate Change
… The accumulating evidence about climate change’s destructive power represents an irresistible force for action. But it’s colliding with an immovable object: the unbreakable resistance to any response among both Republican voters and elected officials. Polling shows that, overall, a growing share of Americans believe climate change is happening, that […] Read more »
2020 Election Scenario Explorer
The Economist election model has Biden at 86%. But what happens if Trump wins Florida? How about if Biden wins Arizona? Which states are most pivotal? By clicking on different states, you can explore how the odds change under different scenarios. CONT. Dan Fernholz & Ric Fernholz Read more »
The Trial-Heat and Convention Bump Forecasts of the 2020 Presidential Election
Key Points• The Trial-Heat and Convention Bump Forecasting Models have an excellent record for accurate predictions of the presidential elections going back to 1992.• Forecasting models depend on applying electoral history to the current election, but 2020 is historically abnormal (at least, in the period since 1948).• The greatest challenge […] Read more »
Your personal election anxiety management calendar is here!
Almost every analysis of the 2020 election says the same thing: Joe Biden has an advantage over President Trump, but data analysts such as me won’t go so far as to predict the ultimate winner outright. Public opinion could change! Trump could outperform his polls! The warnings we repeat are […] Read more »