In just 51 days, the United States will close a bizarre chapter of American history. Things will probably never return to “normal,” at least as defined by pre-pandemic standards, but to borrow the title of a great 2013 political documentary about contemporary race and politics in New Orleans, Getting Back […] Read more »
Why Senate Republicans start the next cycle from a position of strength
Joe Biden will face an enormous obstacle in his first two years of governing: The U.S. Senate. Republicans have already secured 50 seats in the upper chamber, and they might win two more once Georgia’s runoff elections are resolved. The best-case scenario for Biden is a 50-50 split, with future […] Read more »
The undecided verdict on 2020 polling
… Many of the poll-blamers ignore the fact that undecided voters are, well, undecided. As this column has noted before, pollsters are not mind-readers and polls are not crystal balls that can see the future. If someone is asked who they plan to support and they say they haven’t decided, […] Read more »
How did the Political Science Forecasters Do?
Key Points• Prior to the election, several prominent political scientists forecast the election in PS: Political Science and Politics.• In aggregate, the forecasts performed very well.• However, several individual forecasts missed the mark, and this election showed the importance of questioning the assumptions of models in the midst of an […] Read more »
Density as Destiny?
There were lots of mixed messages that came out of this election. Pres. Donald Trump’s divisive and polarizing style cost him the White House, but his unpopularity didn’t doom down-ballot Republicans. Trump’s attacks on Joe Biden as a secret supporter of socialism fell flat, but that didn’t insulate House Democratic […] Read more »
After Biden Win, Nation’s Republicans Fear the Economy Ahead
Optimism about the economy has taken a nosedive among Republicans. But the economy did not drive the change. The presidential election did. After President Trump’s loss to former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr., more than 40 percent of Republicans who were polled for The New York Times said they […] Read more »